Arabella's interest in uncertainty began at the bedside as a frontline clinician where she was constantly confronted with complex decisions, incomplete information, and unpredictable outcomes.
These experiences sparked a series of questions that have shaped more than two decades of research:
How does our response to uncertainty influence our decision-making, performance, and wellbeing?
Why are humans so ill-equipped to navigate uncertainty?
Why do some individuals, teams, and organisations thrive in uncertainty while others become overwhelmed by it?
How can we learn to respond to uncertainty in ways that enhance, rather than undermine, our judgement, performance, and wellbeing?
Working across neuroscience, behavioural science, medicine, education, and leadership, Arabella's research seeks not only to understand uncertainty, but to identify practical, evidence-based ways of responding to it more skilfully.
This work has culminated in the development of the GREYSCALE Capacities, a science-informed model that identifies the core capacities that help enable individuals, teams, and organisations to transform uncertainty from a source of stress into a catalyst for better decisions, stronger performance, enhanced wellbeing, and ultimately, human flourishing.
Arabella has over 50 publications, many in leading peer-reviewed journals, including The New England Journal of Medicine, JAMA, and The BMJ. Although much of this research has been conducted in healthcare, its findings offer insights that are increasingly relevant wherever people must make decisions in the face of uncertainty.
RESEARCH THEMES
HOW UNCERTAINTY SHAPES DECISIONS
BURNOUT, STRESS, AND WELLBEING
LEADERSHIP, TEAMS, AND PERFORMANCE
LEARNING, EDUCATION, AND THE FUTURE OF MEDICAL EDUCATION
SELECT PUBLICATIONS
Tolerating Uncertainty - The Next Medical Revolution | NEJM
Why learning to work with uncertainty may be one of the most important skills in modern healthcare
Factors Associated with Physician Tolerance of Uncertainty: an Observational Study | J Gen Int Med
Exploring why some physicians navigate uncertainty more effectively than others
Association of Self-reported Primary Care Physician Tolerance for Uncertainty With Variations in Resource Use and Patient Experience | JAMA Netw Open
How clinicians’ comfort with uncertainty influences patient care, testing, and healthcare utilisation
Cascades of Care After Incidental Findings in a US National Survey of Physicians | JAMA Netw Open
The hidden costs of pursuing certainty in medicine
Assessment of Job Satisfaction and Feeling Valued in Academic Medicine | JAMA Int Med
Exploring the factors that contribute to wellbeing, engagement, and professional fulfilment in healthcare
Demonstrating how the words we use can shape our reaction to uncertainty
Communicating Uncertainty: a Narrative Review and Framework for Future Research | J Gen Int Med
Helping clinicians communicate uncertainty more effectively
Tips for thriving in the face of clinical uncertainty | Med Teach
A practical framework for understanding, navigating, and ultimately leveraging uncertainty in high-stakes environments